Free The Future of War Dissertation Example
The Future of War
The future of war is traditionally an ever-changing aspect across the globe. Historians have argued that none of the previous societies learnt from history since changes, disruptions, or events can dent the forecast of the future. Traditionally, war relied on huge numbers of the military, especially during the European dominance. However, changing strategies of war required nations to establish new avenues to win the war. World wars elaborated the need for coalitions, advanced weaponry, and strategies to win the war. The World Wars led to the introduction of the scorched earth policy, aerial bombardments, nuclear weapons, block by block combat, and the establishment of strategic positions to deter bombardment of allies. However, the Cold War led to the arms race, which has continually evolved to encompass the superpowers and other emerging nations such as Iran, India, and Israel. Currently, the United Nations estimates that over 70 nations have nuclear weapon potential, increasing the risks of global warfare (Macias, 2018). However, the report notes that North Korea portends the highest risks, with its aggressive behavior putting nations at risk.
Military spending has increased in the last 3 decades, with developed nations increasing their spending for military advancement. The US has increased its military spending from a meagre $614 billion in 2000 to over $700 billion in 2017 (Stein, 2018). Similarly, Russia and China, have increased their spending, focusing on deterrence and pre-emption with anti-artillery equipment and surveillance mechanisms. Apparently, the arms race has influenced poor nations to invest more in military advancement at the expense of critical national needs. Legal constraints influence the direction of the war. However, Russia and China are exploiting the grey zone between war and peace, through the annexation of Crimea and the militarization of the China waters. The changes have influenced the US aggression against the two nations, with the recent apathy against the two nations being vindicated by the US sanctions against China, and recent public disapproval of Trump’s dalliance with Russia.
The future of war seems to follow certain patterns, trends, and influencing factors. The factors potentially elaborate on the direction of the war in the future. The emergence of artificial intelligence seeks to involve robots in war, better collection of intelligence, and destruction of networks across borders. Recently, a declaration by leading AI experts not to engage in military AI offers little hope of the future use of robots in war. Apparently, individuals are against the creation of autonomous robots which can make decisions to kill or not to kill human beings. Moreover, the recent use of chemical weapons in Syria and the murder of Russian turned British agent by Russia infers the multiplicity of the future of war. Relatively, the introduction of drones has helped in surveillance and intelligence collection, while cyber warfare was used partially to slow Iran’s progress of nuclear weapons. High disapproval rates of war especially due to human harm such as high death rates of soldiers, debilitating injuries, and the rising costs of wars influence the privatization of militaries across the globe (Freedman, 2017). However, experts expect non-state actors such as ISIS, Boko Haram, and Al Shabaab, as potential threats and likely to influence the future of war.
Combat drones used across the globe have been increasing with the arms race. The evolution of surveillance and intelligence collection to missile strikes and anti-artillery features to secure their strikes. Experts estimate that over 82 countries have combat drones with military precision (Dillow, 2016). Moreover, the USA, Britain, and Israel have used the military unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAV) in combat in Asia, Syria, and Egypt respectively. Previously, only the USA had the military capability to use the drones, though the arms race is influencing others to buy the drones. Currently, Israeli owned firm, Aerospace Technologies has sold over 100,000 drones across the globe. Predator C Avenger, MQ-8B Fire Scout, Gray Eagle UAS, Wing Loong II UAV, and MQ-9 Reaper are among the most lethal drones used across the globe. The drones can take real-time images, take military precision missile strikes, and operate autonomously. Currently, the USA has set aside $2 billion for the research and development of new drone technologies (Dillow, 2016). The deployment of drones ensures zero casualties for the aggressor allowing nations to easily control the effects and direction of the war. Russia and China have been developing artilleries that can detect and prevent drone strikes, while the US is developing military speed precision drones. Experts expect the new drones will shape the future of war.
The risks of cyber warfare portend gloomy times ahead. The rising capabilities of nations across the globe and new approaches to cyber warfare has necessitated the need to build capacity on cybersecurity. Cyber warfare involves the decapacitation of networks using online or intertwined programs across the globe. Aggressors target important sectors of the economy such as the stock market, banking sector, manufacturing, national registry, communications, and the power grid. The net effect of cyber warfare is the loss of data, outside controls, manipulation, and putting at risk millions of livelihoods across the globe. Currently, the USA, China, North Korea, Russia, Britain, and Israel, have an unmatched capacity of cyber technical capability, putting the nations at the forefront of the emerging technology. However, recent attacks on important firms across the globe illustrates that non-state actors are likely to play crucial roles in advancing cyber warfare across the globe. Aramco was attacked in 2012, leading to the decapitation of nearly all its computers, which was later linked to a group likened to “Cutting Sword of Justice.” (Shamseddine, 2017) The anonymity of aggressors is likely to influence the future of war, while advancement in skills will increase the risks to cyber warfare. Moreover, the relative cost of cyber warfare is likely to influence state and non-state actors aggression through cyber technologies.
Privatization of the Military
Military privatization is now a reality, with over 300 firms globally operating as private security contractors. The introduction of security contracting in the 1970s and later during the Iraqi war illustrates that the trend has long been overdue. The high costs of military operations, high death rates, and public disapproval of the public against war has forced nations to contract private security firms to undertake the operations. Prosegur, Academi, and Aegis are some of the famous firms across the globe. Private security firms are engaging in military training, military incursions, and military assistance. Blackwater was hugely involved in the Iraqi war, illustrating the shift in the direction of the war. Currently, global powerhouses such as the USA, Britain, and Russia, prefer the use of military contractors for highly delicate military interventions. The firms have acquired state of the art technologies, established technical training, and have capacity on diverse aspects of military needs. The firms have access to drones, chemical weapons, and the ability to strike through cyber capacities.
Conclusively, privatization of the military, use of combat drones, and cyber warfare will adversely influence the future of war, especially with the potential risk of non-state actors.
Dillow, C. (2016). All of These Countries Now Have Armed Drones. Retrieved from
Freedman, L. (2017). The future of war: a history. New York: Public Affairs.
Macias, A. (2018). There are about 14,500 nuclear weapons in the world. Here are the countries
that have them. [online] CNBC. Available at: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/16/list-of-
countries-with-nuclear-weapons.html [Accessed 13 Sep. 2018].
Shamseddine, R. (2017). Saudi Arabia warns on cyber defense as Shamoon resurfaces. Retrieved
Stein, J. (2018). U.S. military budget inches closer to $1 trillion mark, as concerns over federal
deficit grow. Retrieved from
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